Hindsight Bias

I Knew It All Along

Why do we see unpredictable events as predictable after they occur?


Hindsite Bias. Cartoon.

Hindsight Bias - Overview

Hindsight bias occurs when you look back in time and see an unpredictable event as predictable or, at least, more predictable than it was at the point it in time when the decision was made. 

This is often referred to the annoying "I knew it all along" or the "I told you so" tendency.

Hindsight bias can be a damaging self-delusion, it can cause you to:

  • Deceive yourself into thinking that your judgement is better than it is
  • Be less accountable for your judgement calls
  • Criticise others for their poor judgement



    “It’s often hard to convince seasoned decision makers that they might fall prey to hindsight bias.” [Neal Roese]






Why You Exercise Hindsight Bias


The hindsight bias can occur as a result of a memory distortion or "misremembering" of a prior judgement call.

This self-deception occurs when fresh current information overlays a past event or experience and allows/causes you to reinterpret the original assessment into something that fits the current information.

Your beliefs an also have a distorting effect, for example, in the light of current information you delude yourself into seeing the past event as inevitable and/or foreseeable.

According to psychologists Roese and Vohs, three variables are potentially at work in these distortions :


[1] Cognition

You selectively remember information that confirms what you already think you know to be true to create a story that makes sense to you - see confirmation bias


[2] Metacognition

When you are thinking about your thinking of a past event and reviewing those thought processes in the light of current information, you can easily fall prey to the availability heuristic and selectively remember those elements of your prior knowledge that you can most easily recall.


[3] Motivation

You would like to believe that the world is safe, orderly and predictable rather than the unpredictable and seemingly random and meaningless way life unfolds, you would also like to boost your self esteem, and for these and other related reasons we unconsciously reorder our memories and cognitive processing to arrive at the comforting "I knew it all aong conclusion.

Rudiger Pohl in Cognitive Illusions offers an evolutionary explanation of hindsight bias:


[4] Adaptive Learning

"...hindsight bias is not necessarily a bothersome consequence of a “faulty” information process system, but that is may rather represent an unavoidable by-product of an evolutionary evolved function, namely adaptive learning.

According to this view, hindsight bias is seen as the consequence of our most valuable ability to update previously held knowledge.

This may be seen as a necessary process in order to prevent memory overload and thus to maintain normal cognitive functioning.

Besides, updating allows us to keep our knowledge more coherent and to draw better inferences."










How To Avoid Hindsight Bias

Falling into the self delusion of Hindsight Bias can have serious implications for you:

  • Ill-founded over confidence in your decision making capabilities can cause you to make unrealistic predictions and decisions that may have damaging consequences/.
  • It can stop you learning from new experiences. If you really did know it all already you will be unable and unwilling to learn.


There are 2 practical ways you can counteract the impact of hindsight bias:

  1. Keep a record! With business and career related decisions email a trusted friend or colleague with your assessment and predictions of anticipated outcomes of your decisions. Alternatively, keep a personal log or journal - or you could even email yourself, like I do! Doing this enables you to gain insight and learn.
  2. Consider alternative outcomes. Review the outcomes that did not occur and consider how they might have. This also causes you to expand your perspective to the wider scope of potential outcomes. 






Resources:

Excellent and comprehensive article from Shane Parrish of Farnam St: Hindsight Bias: Why You’re Not As Smart As You Think You Are

Another comprehensive and easy to read article from The Decision Lab:
Why do we see unpredictable events as predictable after they occur?








Return from "Hindsight Bias" to: Cognitive Distortion




English Chinese (Traditional) Russian French German Italian Spanish Vietnamese




If you have found this site helpful and would like to support our work


LATEST ARTICLES

  1. The ETTO Principle - Why Near Enough Can Be Good Enough

    How To Balance the Efficiency-Thoroughness Trade Off The ETTO Principle describes the inherent trade-off between working efficiently and working thoroughly. This trade-off is something that affects…

    Read More

  2. Master The Art Of Drawing The Bow

    Focus On Process Not Outcome In so many areas of our lives, we focus on the outcome, not the process that we follow to achieve it. In the western world, we are conditioned to pay less attention to how…

    Read More

  3. And So This Is Christmas

    There Is No Path To Peace - The Path Is Peace Thich Nhat Hanh, the renowned Vietnamese Zen Buddhist monk, teacher, and peace activist, often spoke about peace as a state of being that begins within on…

    Read More

  4. Curiosity Skilled The Cat - Optimize For Interesting

    Curiosity Fuels Excellence The old adage, “Curiosity killed the cat,” warns of the dangers of venturing too far into the unknown. But what if we reimagine it not as a risk but as a gateway to developi…

    Read More

  5. Let Stillness Speak - Living Within A Complex System

    To let stlllness speak is to learn it's first major lesson: you are not your thoughts. To let stillness speak is about stepping back from the constant chatter of your mind and allowing a deeper, quiet…

    Read More

  6. Understanding Complex Systems Thinking - It's Not Complicated

    Understanding, and being able to work with, complexity is an important thinking skill. We are all working with complex systems, and we do so every day. The biggest one is life itself. We automaticall…

    Read More

  7. Stay On The Bus - When To Keep On Going

    The Helsinki Bus Station Theory Have you ever started a new project, initiative or role with a big vision and a determination to make a difference? Initially you were full of enthusiasm and highly mo…

    Read More

  8. Zen Thoughts Email Series

    Conversations With A Friend Zen Thoughts is an email series of 50 short messages spread over 3 months. The messages are written in the style of a conversation with a friend who is going through a toug…

    Read More

  9. How to Get What You Value by Changing What You Measure

    Give Up Control & Gain Influence To Get What You Want The metrics we choose to focus on can significantly shape our outcomes, sometimes in ways we don't intend. The challenge is to make sure that you…

    Read More

  10. How to Become A Master At Overcoming Hard Moments

    "The best in the world are not the best because they win every point. It's because they lose again and again and have learned how to deal with it." This quote from Roger Federer has got a lot of cover…

    Read More

  11. Drop The Story - Deal With Your Demons and Transform Your Experience

    Are you living your life from the stories you tell yourself? Learning how to drop the story and deal with that voice in your head can be a game changer. When you can do this you will have a powerful t…

    Read More

  12. Standing In The Gap Between No Longer And Not Yet

    Standing In The Gap In Conditions Of Imposed Change. This is about imposed change and surviving a dire and desperate situation where you are stuck in a difficult or seemingly impossible set of circums…

    Read More

  13. Preparing The Ground - For Things You Can Not See

    We plough the fields and scatter the good seed on the ground. The phrase "preparing the ground" is a metaphor for making the necessary preparations to create the favourable conditions for something to…

    Read More

  14. Easing The Weight Of Expectation

    Don’t you often feel like you are carrying the weight of the world on your back? Our start point is understanding that the ego has a very clear idea of how things ought to be, and its intention and ex…

    Read More

  15. Coram Deo - Living In Consciousness

    In you there is a dimension of consciousness far deeper than thought. It is the very essence of who you are. Coram Deo is about living in consciousness. It is a Latin phrase which literally means “to…

    Read More




3 Keys Solutions



The Balanced Toolkit