Outcome Over Optics

Long Game Outcomes Over Short-Term Ego Gains

The Day I Learned To Focus On Outcome Over Optics

I have never forgotten the day I learned to focus on outcome over optics and figured out a very simple way of saving myself several hundred thousand dollars. 

It was an ordinary working day and I was sitting in my office in the small UK market town of Marlborough taking a coffee break and contemplating changing my car.

At that time it was standard business practice to buy a new car every one to two years. The reason for this was all about optics, put bluntly, ego and status. 

Your peers would pay close attention to what car you were driving. You'd turn up for a business meeting and, more often than not, your prospect or client would look at your car.

If you could afford to change your car frequently you were signalling that you were doing well and making money.

Optics came at a price

At that time, the average cost of a suitable car for business use was then about $50,000. The depreciation rate on a UK car runs at about 30% in year one, and about 50% in year two. So the true cost of changing your car every year was in the region of $15,000 and a  two year change cost $25,000 thus $12,500 per year..

My office was on the first floor of an old building overlooking the high street. 

The street is very wide with enough space for parking in the middle of the road.

I was idly looking down on all these cars when I noticed a number of Volvo cars.

This in itself was not extraordinary as at that time Volvo cars were popular with the business people in the local community.

But then I suddenly realised that the design of these Volvos were all the same, so without looking at the car license number plates it was impossible to tell the age of any of these cars.

When I looked at the license plates I discovered that these cars ranged from brand new to nearly 20 years old.

In fact Volvo produced the 244 model for 19 years, from 1974 to 1993. These cars were extremely well made and had an engine life of about 25 years.

The light bulb moment

I realised that if I bought a vanity licence plate it would be hard for anyone to know the age of the car.

This meant that by buying one of these volvos that was about 3 years old, applying a vanity plate, and running it for 10 years or longer I could save myself about $10,000 [or more] in depreciation every year.

Rolled up over a 25-30 year business career this amounted to savings of $250,000 to $300,000.

This is exactly what I did.

By changing my car buying strategy I maintained the optics at a vastly reduced cost and optimised the outcome that I wanted with a long lasting high quality car.

Since then, I have applied this strategy to other areas of my life and have saved huge amounts of money.

Playing The Long Game - The Ultimate Focus On Outcome Over Optics

The long game describes an approach to any area of life that sacrifices short term gains for long-term wins.

This is the ultimate example of a focus on outcome over optics.

It is about having a long term goal and taking the necessary steps now to set yourself up for long term success.

If you play the long game you delay gratification now to get more later, you stop focusing on the short term and you think ahead.

The immediate effect of this is that you will be less efficient in the short term in order to be much more effective in the long term.

This can be hard and it means being prepared to make a lot of mistakes and errors  and even on occasions being prepared to look stupid.

As Shane Parrish puts it:

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Why Do We So Often Default To Optics Over Outcome?

In today’s fast-paced, hyper-connected world, the temptation to focus on optics - how things appear - is greater than ever.

Understanding Optics vs. Outcomes

• Optics - refer to the way things are perceived by others - how a company markets itself, how individuals present their work, or how leaders craft a particular narrative.
• Outcomes - represent actual results - tangible improvements, measurable success, and real impact.

While optics can provide short-term benefits, such as boosting brand image or personal reputation, relying solely on them can lead to a hollow foundation.

Prioritizing optics over outcome can result in superficial decision-making, wasted resources, and a lack of genuine progress, and yet this is the option we usually take.

Why?

Here are three powerful reasons:

[1] We Are Hard Wired to Follow the Path of Least Resistance

• We are always looking for the path of least resistance, and this is often the one we take.
• We do this because it appears to require less effort and so we think we can get maximum bang for minimal buck.
• The path of least resistance appears to provide the most immediate gratification, which appeals as we are hardwired for instant gratification.
• The path of least resistance appears to provide the option of least risk.
• The human brain is hardwired to seek out the path of least resistance and to conserve energy whenever possible.

[2] We Follow The Herd

• Recent research suggests that we are hardwired to conform.
• We're impressionable and more likely to simply accept what's presented to us than chart our own course.
• When we are uncertain about what's normal, we trust what others are doing as the most appropriate thing to do.
• We follow others when we are self conscious and want to fit it.
• We follow the herd - and often without realizing it - we mimic other people's choices.

[3] We Are Unconsciously Driven By Group Culture

• Jack Canfield is alleged to have said that you are the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with.
• Social media rewards perception over reality.
• Social media - contains an inbuilt confirmation bias.
• Group culture is the single biggest determinant of how an individual will behave within any group environment.
• Group culture is: "How we do things round here." It can be a physical organisation or the online impact of social media that we regularly consume.
• It will over-ride education, intelligence and common sense.

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Outcome Over Optics - 2 Important Factors

[1] First Principles Thinking - Optimize The Function & Ignore The Form

Another important aspect of focusing on outcome over optics is to do with how we think.

One of the key thinking skills is first principles thinking which is about reducing something down to the most basic parts that you know are true, and using that as your foundation for building up from there.

It involves digging deeper and deeper until you are left with only the foundation truth of a situation.

First principles thinking means testing assumptions, taking things apart and reconstructing them so that we can cut through the dogma, the group think, and see things as they are and see what is possible.

Our default thinking is to focus on form over function

Because of our default tendency for thinking by analogy we focus on form - that is to say we focus on the optics.

When most people envision the future, they project the current form forward rather than projecting the function forward and abandoning the form.

Old conventions, the ideas you inherit, are presented in terms of optics, and are usually accepted without question and this creates a boundary to creative thinking.

Key Questions:

• What are you trying to accomplish?
• What is the functional outcome you are looking to achieve?

Example:

Function Over Form - The Wellington And The Gate

[2] Extreme Risk Management - Focus On Consequence Ignore Probability

A further important aspect of focusing on outcome over optics is to do with how we manage extreme risk.

There is a level of risk that we need to be aware of and that is to do with extreme events.

These extreme events are know as Black Swans and are events that are difficult to predict, occur very occasionally and have potentially severe consequences.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb the mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and writer brought the concept to popular attention in his book, "The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable".

Taleb describes black swans as an event that:

1. Is so rare that it is not on the radar to extent that even the possibility that it might occur is not known.
2. Has a devastating and catastrophic impact when it does happen.
3. After the event is rationalised as though [with the benefit of hindsight] it was actually predictable.

Underpinning Taleb's perspective is an ugly word from the world of mathematics known as "ergodicity" which is an umbrella term for two sets of conditions of probability and outcome.

The difficulty is that we have absolutely no way of knowing WHEN this will occur and no way of knowing WHAT will occur and so we say:

"I can't see this happening therefore I am going to ignore it".

This is the stance of our leaders, rulers and most so called financial experts. They nearly all make this basic mistake because they only focus on what they can see, and what they can measure, and ignore the rest.

Extreme events are seen as outliers and so the risk of these events happening is regularly and officially dismissed as "irrational".

This fundamental error by our rulers and leaders is what Nassim Taleb refers to as being "fooled by randomness".

The result of this is that we don't prepare and when the extreme event occurs it causes immense damage. Nassim Taleb advises that we:

Example:

Examples Of Black Swan Events Over The Past 25 Years

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Optics Over Outcome - The Politics Of Perception

The politics of perception in political life and corporate working life provide us with a contra-view to "outcome over optics".

Now we are talking about "optics over outcomes".

This is the world of smoke and mirrors where nothing is what it seems and true meanings and intentions are sufficiently distorted to misdirect our attention.

As Humpty Dumpty put in "Alice in Wonderland": “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”

 In "1984"  George Orwell coined the phrase "doublethink" as a tool of the Party to control language and conceal the government's true intentions with slogans like "War is Peace" and "Freedom is Slavery" to promote doublethink.

In my past experiences in corporate life in the UK my colleagues and I coined a phrase which we called "The 3 Levels Of Wanting" which described the behaviour of senior people and where they are positioned on the optics - outcome spectrum

The Optics - Outcome Spectrum

The 3 Levels Of Wanting

1. Wanting to do something and actually getting on and doing it - demonstrates a 100% focus on outcome.
2. Wanting to be seen to be doing something - shows an equal focus on optics and outcome.
3. Wanting to be seen to be wanting to do something - is a 100% focus on optics.

In my experience many senior corporate executives in the UK are positioned somewhere between levels two and three.

I fully understand that corporate political behaviour will differ from one country to another.

Corporate life in the UK is deeply political and in my past experience most executives will adopt a level three position and maintain it for as long as possible until they have to take action and actually do something.

When they do take action and move to level two position they care about the optics and invariably want to be seen to be doing!

In my observed experience, most UK politicians operate mainly at level three.

How To Tell The Level Of Wanting?

In the world of "smoke and mirrors" always watch the other guy's feet to see his true intentions.

When there is a disconnect between someone's words and actions, always pay close attention to their actions.

You can forgive someone one wrong step, two is a problem and three is a pattern and reveals the truth.

 

Exploiting The Optics To Persuade A Senior Person In A Corporate To Take Action

I want to conclude this article on outcomes and optics by sharing some practical advice on how to persuade senior people in corporates to take action.

This may sound counter-intuitive but please bear with me because this stuff really works and will give you the highest probability of getting your desired outcome when dealing with senior people in large organisations.

Here is how to do it together with a detailed example of how I applied this:

Getting Our Local Council To Take Action and Stop Flooding

Here is a further detailed example how I helped my daughter Tansy to secure a $500,000 tax refund for 60 of her fellow students and herself:

How This Process Secured A $500,000 Tax Refund For 60 Doctoral Students

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Further Reading:

The Long Game - Delay Gains Now To Get More Later

Delayed Gratification - Your Brain Is Not Evolved To Wait

Herd Mentality And How To Avoid It

First Principles Thinking - Test Assumptions & Find Foundations

Nassim Taleb - Focus On The Consequences And Not On The Probability

Black Swans - Impossible To Predict, Rare and Devastating Consequences

Why Understanding Ergodicity Is Critical To Your Long Term Survival

Return from: "Outcome Over Process" to: Walking The Talk Or Mental Models

Contact me