The Metagame Approach to Second Order Thinking
5 Guiding Principles
How To Position Yourself For Survival & Success In A Complex Environment
Introducing The Metagame Approach to Second Order Thinking
The metagame approach to second order thinking combines two sets of thinking skills that address the unpredictability of modern life within a complex system.
Much of the anxiety and frustration that we experience in our daily lives is the result of our approaching life with the wrong mindset.
The purpose of this article is to offer some guiding principles that will position you to survive and thrive in this complex environment.
The Metagame
The metagame is "the game beyond the game", it involves:
- Understanding the bigger picture
- Seeing what others don't see
- Positioning yourself for survival and success in a complex environment
We live in a world of vast complexity. It is impossible to comprehend all the moving parts, and even if we could, we can't control them.
Life is a complex system and that means we are navigating a world where multiple interdependent factors interact in often unpredictable ways.
Traditional thinking is not enough, dealing with complexity requires a more intuitive and collaborative approach.
Life in a complex system is full of random events that are beyond your control, and the one thing you can control is how you choose to respond to these events.
The quality of your response is driven by the quality of your thinking.
Applying this approach to second-order thinking means looking at decisions not just for their direct consequences but also at the context in which they occur.
For example, in a complex system:
- Cause and effect is often non linear - which means that a small change in one part of the system can have a disproportionately large effect elsewhere.
- Outcomes emerge from interactions of system components - these outcomes cannot be predicted by looking at the components in isolation, and these outcomes exist at a higher level than the individual components, such as flocking behavior in birds or traffic jams in road systems.
Second Order Thinking
Second-order thinking is a mental model that encourages looking beyond
the obvious immediate consequences to avoid long-term and unintended consequences.
Most of the time we use first-order thinking. This is usually quick and easy and addresses the immediately presenting symptoms and doesn't consider consequences.
Second order thinking is deliberate thinking that attempts to take account of interactions and time, as it considers potential consequences of a decision or action.
It is about attempting to see things that other people don't or can't see.
It is time-consuming hard work - much harder than first order thinking - but it can lead to extraordinary performance.
In practise, second-order thinking:
- Questions everything - challenge all assumptions.
- Involves others - get alternative perspectives.
- Thinks long term - consider impacts at different time points.
- Asks the key question - "And then what..?"
Complex Systems
Life is more than complicated, it is complex.
To be clear, a complicated system can be seen as the sum of the parts whereas a complex system is greater than the sum of the parts.
Complicated systems fall within classic Newtonian thinking - the mechanical universe which is all about: Predictability, Reductionism, Determinism, Cause and Effect, Equilibrium and Centralised Top-Down Control
With a complicated system if you understand the part then you can understand the system.
Whereas, complex systems involves a holistic approach which focuses on the dynamics of the interactions between the multiple component parts of the system and is all about:
- Emergent Behavior
- Nonlinear Interactions
- Adaptation and Learning
- Unpredictability and Uncertainty of Outcome
- Distributed Control.
With a complex system if you understand the dynamics of the parts you can gain better understanding of the system.
Examples of complex systems include: ecosystems, financial markets, the human brain, and social networks.
We are all working with complex systems, and we do so every day. The biggest one is life itself.
How To Apply The Metagame Approach to Second Order Thinking
Solid -> fluid
The metagame approach to second order thinking recognises that it is very effective - as far at it goes.
But, and this is very big but, all mental models are based on classic Newtonian thinking which sees a mechanical universe that is solid, complicated but predictable. The modern world we live in is fluid, unpredictable and works according to a completely different set of rules based on the innumerable interactions of the multiple components within it - in other words it is a complex system.
Peter Senge described systems thinking as a discipline for seeing wholes - a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing "patterns of change" rather than "static snapshots".
Necessary but not sufficient
The traditional Newtonian thinking still works, the mental models that we know and love so well are still relevant and applicable and they are necessary but they are not sufficient.
We need to still work these mental models, but we need to expand our thinking to incorporate new ideas and new approaches.
The old rules still apply but they are subsumed within, and transcended by, the new rules.
Second Order Thinking is all about looking at cause and effect and we do this by asking endless questions based around "And then what?"
Our aim can be summarised as going beyond the obvious and seeking to avoid unintended consequences.We do this in a linear manner always looking at how "this" moves to "that" - always leading to logical and predictable consequences.
Unpredictabilty
But with the metagame approach to second order thinking the environment changes from linear cause and effect leading to predictable consequences, to non linear unpredictability and a whole new concept - emergence.
Emergence
Complex systems exhibit emergent behavior, where the whole system displays characteristics that cannot be explained by the individual parts alone.
These behaviors emerge from the interactions of components, often in unpredictable ways. For example a colony of ants (complex system) exhibits emergent behaviors like foraging patterns or nest building, none of which can be understood by examining a single ant in isolation.
It is also important to understand that you can't understand the whole system by looking at the behavior of an individual ant.
This also applies to human behaviour.
Contrary to prevailing popular politicised thinking, the attitudes and behaviour of the individual are not representative of the whole group.
To be specific: the tragedy of George Floyd's death is not a metric of racism in US society or in the US police, or here in the UK, the behavior of royal assistant Lady Susan Hussey is not a metric of racism in the UK royal family.
The impact of living within a complex system is that traditional second order thinking is not enough to cope with unpredictability and emergence.
We need new tools. We have to make the shift from solid thinking to fluid thinking.
Here is a "Summary Of Key Differences" between solid, Newtonian thinking and the fluid thinking of complex systems.
5 Guiding Principals To Apply The Metagame Approach to Second Order Thinking
[1] The Principle Of Dynamics
This focuses on what is happening in the background - all the moving parts that deliver the outcome that you observe - and how they interact over time and how they are connected. It
applies to the: Key Question: "What's going on in the background, what's driving this outcome" [2] The Principle Of The Intangible This focuses on the intangible things that will influence the outcome and are often critical to it. We tend to measure the tangible things we can see and overlook the critical intangibles that are not so easy to see or measure. The things you can't see and are not easy to measure include: Intangible are measured by the value they add. The measurement is a subjective, qualitative measurement of process. Key Question: "What are the unseen factors that are influencing this outcome?" [3] The Principle Of Influence We live in an interconnected world and knowing how to influence
without exercising control is an increasingly important communictation skill. Control leads through position. Influence builds others out of relationship. Influence isn’t always direct or obvious—it can happen through energy, emotions, and the power of ideas. Here is a personal anecdote about how to get what you value when you
come to realize that influence exercised over the long term is far more important
than control now. Key Question: "Where is the 'win-win'? How do I get the outcome I really want by giving them what they really want?" [4]
The Principle Of Distributed Control Complex systems involve decentralized or distributed control. The
system doesn’t have a single controlling entity; instead, behaviour
arises from the interactions and decisions of many independent agents -
allowing multiple factors to influence and shape outcomes. An obvious example is the internet which is decentralized, with countless
independent nodes interacting with each other without a single point of
control. For those in leadership and
management operating in a complex systems environment, control is limited and the effective approach is to provide vision, training and guiding parameters and to push control down to the frontlines with defined levels of autonomy as to how they act. For those not in positions of management and leadership this is about identifying, engaging with, and seeking influence with, the informal human networks and expecially the [non-management] natural leaders and key influencers within those networks. Key Questions: [1] For Managers and Leaders "What do I need to do to empower the troops in the frontline to exercise initiative and take action to get the outcome I want?" [2] For Non Managers & Non Leaders "Who are the natural leaders and key influencers
within the informal networks that I need to engage with, and influence, to get the outcome I want? [5]
The Principle Of Antifragility Antifragility is a term coined by Nassim Taleb to represent things that benefit from
disorder. Antifragility is the quality of something that gets
better, or thrives, in the presence of disorder. One of the keys to antifragility is slack - sacrifice functional capacity and accept less efficiency in the short term for long-term gain and survival. See here for examples of: how to apply and live with antifragility. Key Question: "How can I build in slack to prepare for the unexpected happening, and to survive and thrive, what are my options and where are my back ups? "
New Mindsets, Practices and Skills To Support These 5 Guiding Principles
Operating within complex systems—whether in business, nature, technology, or society—requires specific mindsets, practices, and skills to navigate uncertainty, interconnectedness, and constant change effectively.
Further Reading:
The Metagame Approach To Life - How To Achieve Your Biggest Objectives
Second Order Thinking - And Then What?
Understanding Complex Systems Thinking - It's Not Complicated
How to Get What You Value by Changing What You Measure
How To Benefit From The Unseen Margins - 5 Key Tips For Success
Return from: "The Metagame Approach To Second Order Thinking" to: Walking The Talk Or Mental Models
LATEST ARTICLES
Outcome Over Optics - Long Game Outcomes Over Short-Term Ego Gains
The Day I Learned To Focus On Outcome Over Optics I have never forgotten the day I learned to focus on outcomes over optics and figured out a very simple way of saving myself several hundred thousand…The ETTO Principle - Why Near Enough Can Be Good Enough
How To Balance the Efficiency-Thoroughness Trade Off The ETTO Principle describes the inherent trade-off between working efficiently and working thoroughly. This trade-off is something that affects…Master The Art Of Drawing The Bow
Focus On Process Not Outcome In so many areas of our lives, we focus on the outcome, not the process that we follow to achieve it. In the western world, we are conditioned to pay less attention to how…And So This Is Christmas
There Is No Path To Peace - The Path Is Peace Thich Nhat Hanh, the renowned Vietnamese Zen Buddhist monk, teacher, and peace activist, often spoke about peace as a state of being that begins within on…Curiosity Skilled The Cat - Optimize For Interesting
Curiosity Fuels Excellence The old adage, “Curiosity killed the cat,” warns of the dangers of venturing too far into the unknown. But what if we reimagine it not as a risk but as a gateway to developi…Let Stillness Speak - Living Within A Complex System
To let stlllness speak is to learn it's first major lesson: you are not your thoughts. To let stillness speak is about stepping back from the constant chatter of your mind and allowing a deeper, quiet…Understanding Complex Systems Thinking - It's Not Complicated
Understanding, and being able to work with, complexity is an important thinking skill.
We are all working with complex systems, and we do so every day. The biggest one is life itself. We automaticall…Stay On The Bus - When To Keep On Going
The Helsinki Bus Station Theory
Have you ever started a new project, initiative or role with a big vision and a determination to make a difference? Initially you were full of enthusiasm and highly mo…Zen Thoughts Email Series
Conversations With A Friend Zen Thoughts is an email series of 50 short messages spread over 3 months. The messages are written in the style of a conversation with a friend who is going through a toug…How to Get What You Value by Changing What You Measure
Give Up Control & Gain Influence To Get What You Want
The metrics we choose to focus on can significantly shape our outcomes, sometimes in ways we don't intend. The challenge is to make sure that you…How to Become A Master At Overcoming Hard Moments
"The best in the world are not the best because they win every point. It's because they lose again and again and have learned how to deal with it." This quote from Roger Federer has got a lot of cover…Drop The Story - Deal With Your Demons and Transform Your Experience
Are you living your life from the stories you tell yourself? Learning how to drop the story and deal with that voice in your head can be a game changer. When you can do this you will have a powerful t…Standing In The Gap Between No Longer And Not Yet
Standing In The Gap In Conditions Of Imposed Change. This is about imposed change and surviving a dire and desperate situation where you are stuck in a difficult or seemingly impossible set of circums…Preparing The Ground - For Things You Can Not See
We plough the fields and scatter the good seed on the ground. The phrase "preparing the ground" is a metaphor for making the necessary preparations to create the favourable conditions for something to…Easing The Weight Of Expectation
Don’t you often feel like you are carrying the weight of the world on your back? Our start point is understanding that the ego has a very clear idea of how things ought to be, and its intention and ex…